Janet Wilhelm
Business Day - 4 June 2020 by Luyolo Mkwntane
Business Day - 4 June 2020 by Lynley Donnelly
Placing green stimulus at heart of South Africa’s postpandemic recovery would yield big co-benefits
Engineering News - 4 June 2020 by Terence Creamer
Read online at Engineering News.
TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic
Engineering News - 1 June 2020
Read online at Engineering News.
Engineering News - 30 April 2020 by Marleny Arnoldi
Read online at Engineering News.
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK
On the pandemic
- The rate of growth in cases surged in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, although it slowed in the Western Cape. If the rate of growth outside of the Western Cape is not contained, the number of cases there will double in two weeks – about a week sooner than if the rate of growth had remained the same as last week.
- Government’s decision to define Level 3 as opening most of the economy plus churches and schools represented a fundamental shift in approach and responsibility. It required individuals and groups to manage risk rather than adhering to regulations banning hazardous activities. To succeed, this strategy must combine measures to ensure that people have the information and resources they need for sound decision-making with stringent and swift management of outbreaks. Government did not, however, move to substantially scale-up programmes and expertise to help individuals understand risks and change their behaviour. Nonetheless, it appeared increasingly willing to permit even highly risky activities to reopen in the near future.
- New studies suggested that COVID-19 is disproportionately spread through a few super-spreading events, typically when large numbers are in fairly crowded spaces for a significant period. By extension, the biggest risks under Level 3 arise from public transport, mines, churches, and spaces where significant groups meet at work, including during breaks.
On the economy
- Under Level 3, which starts on 1 June, all businesses except for personal services, recreation and sit-down restaurants will be permitted to reopen. That means that around 90% of workers could return to work, although employers must still have people work from home when possible.
- The third week of Level 4 showed only a limited increase in economic activity but a surge in work-related hotspots, notably in the mines but also in health and the police as well as some retail chains and factories. Most industries did not, however, appear to have a defined structure to identify and mitigate risk factors as they emerged.
- Significant differences emerged in the effectiveness of the various funds established to support workers, businesses and households during the lockdown. The programmes that built on existing programmes have disbursed billions of funds. In contrast, when disbursements required new systems to identify and appraise applicants, relatively few applicants have received any support.
Download a copy or read the Tracker online
Download a copy or read the Tracker online.
The Conversation - 26 May 2020 by Faizel Ismail
Read online at The Conversation
Business Day - 26 May 2020 by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (TIPS Senior Economist) and Jesse Burton (Senior Associate at E3G and the University of Cape Town).
Read online at Business Day
Business Day - 25 May 2020 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
COVID-19: Reconstruction Post Lockdown
Presentations
Neva Makgetla: TIPS COVID-19 Tracker: The economy and the pandemic
Owen Willcox: The macroeconomic response to the COVID crisis
Gaylor Montmasson-Clair: A case for a green and just economic stimulus package
Media
Why QE is the best way to fund stimulus needed to get SA throughCovid-19 crisis (LynleyDonnelly - Business Day 4 June 2020)
Placing green stimulus at heart of South Africa's postpandemic recovery would yield big co-benefits (Terence Creamer - Engineering News 4 June 2020)
Background
The 2020 forecast for South Africa's economic growth at -7% would be the worst since democracy, and is likely to come with massive job losses and firms closing down. There are however options to mitigate the economic impact of the disease. They include a shift in the macro-economic approach as well as ramping up new industries, including renewables. This Development Dialogue will start with a review of the latest trends in the pandemic and the economy, and then consider at-scale responses to the economic downturn.
About the Speakers
Baba-Tamana Gqubule is a senior economist at TIPS and has experience as a Policy Analyst at the Economic Development Department.
Owen Willcox is a Principal Consultant at Oxford Policy Management and previously worked at National Treasury for 11 years.
Gaylor Montmasson-Clair is a senior economist at TIPS. Gaylor has written extensively on the green economy, renewables and the just transition.
Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Dr Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government.