Business Day - 27 May 2019 by Faizel Ismail (Designate director of the Nelson Mandela School of Governance and TIPS research fellow)

Read online at Business Day

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2019  

In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP declined in the first quarter of 2019, while the economy lost jobs. The downturn continues the trend of volatile growth rates that began five years ago. Previous quarterly downturns in this period, however, were driven by agriculture; in contrast, the past quarter saw a broad-based decline. The briefing note on the economic slowdown explores factors behind these trends. Read more.

Employment: Employment in the real economy fell by 160 000 jobs in the year to the first quarter of 2019. It is now at the same level it was in 2015. Manufacturing and construction accounted for the bulk of the net loss in jobs. In the rest of the economy, community and social services lost more than 200 000 jobs while other sectors gained employment. Overall, employment as a whole lost jobs for only the second time since 2010. Read more. 

International trade: In constant rand terms, South African exports have barely grown since 2013. In US dollars, they climbed from 2016 to mid-2018, but fell more than 10% in the six months to March 2019. Nonetheless, an even faster decline in imports – due in part to slow growth and in part to fairly low petroleum prices – meant that the balance of payments remained positive, although a deficit emerged in the first quarter of 2019. Read more.

Investment and profitability: The 2% fall in investment from the year to the first quarter 2018 to the year to the first quarter 2019 was a central factor behind the economic downturn. The sharpest decline emerged for public investment, although both state-owned enterprises and government departments reported a recovery in the first quarter of 2019 alone. Private investment, in contrast, grew slightly year on year, but contracted sharply from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019. Read more.  

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS FDI Tracker tracks foreign direct investment projects, analysing new and updated projects quarterly. Based on media monitoring, it added 14 new projects in the past quarter. Ten of these were in manufacturing, and five were greenfield projects. Six projects previously captured in the Tracker have been updated, with two reaching completion. Read more. 

Briefing note: The economic slowdown: The first quarter of 2019 saw a convergence of poor economic data. The GDP fell by 0.8%; investment, by 1.1%; and exports by 2%. Employment dropped by 1.4%, or 240 000 jobs. Seasonal job losses are not uncommon in the first quarter, but from 2010 to 2018 they averaged just 0.1%, so 2019 saw a significantly larger fall. Read the briefing note online: The economic slowdown.

Briefing note: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) - Supporting inclusive growth and transformation: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) requires 22 countries to ratify its adoption and submit proof/deposit the instruments of ratification with the African Union (AU) for it to come into effect. On 29 April that happened, and on 30 May 2019 the free trade agreement came into effect. Read the briefing note online: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Supporting inclusive growth and transformation.

Business Day - 14 May 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day.

Or read as a PDF.

Mail & Guardian - 7 June 2019 by Tshegofatso Mathe 

Read online at Mail & Guardian.

AGENDA

14:15 - 14:30 Arrival and coffee / tea

14:30 - 14:45 Opening and welcome by chairperson

14:45 - 16:00 Presentations:

Neva Makgetla: Unemployment and GDP in perspective
Rudi Dicks: Accelerating industrial policy to drive growth

16:00 - 16:30 Discussion

16:30 Closure and light snacks

BACKGROUND

The latest jobs numbers and GDP figures point to the urgency of a strategy to put the economy on an upward trajectory. South Africa has huge capacity, but the vicious cycle of slow growth from 2015 is eroding the resilience of the economy and policy space. In this context, industrial policy has been put forward as an enabler, with the Presidency committed to driving growth through a more systematic approach to industry support and unblocking constraints.

This development dialogue will outline the recent economic data and discuss the potential role for industrial policy and stimulus options.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Rudi Dicks is the outcome 4 facilitator in the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation in the Presidency.

Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU.

Engineering News - 31 May 2019 by Marleny Arnoldi (Creamer Media)

Read online at Engineering News.

Engineering News - 31 May 2019 by Marleny Arnoldi (Creamer Media)

Read online at Engineering News.

Engineering News - 30 May 2019 by Marleny Arnoldi (Creamer Media)

Read online at Engineering News.

Business Day - 28 May 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day.

Or read as a PDF.

INDUSTRIAL POLICY FOR POLICY MAKERS (IMMP) 2019

3-7 SEPTEMBER 2019 SANDTON, SOUTH AFRICA

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS

The third edition of the Industrial Policy for Policy Makers (IPPM) training programme will be taking place in September 2019, and will be held alongside the annual African Programme on Rethinking Development Economics (APORDE). This year’s theme for IPPM is: CHALLENGES OF THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

The programme is a partnership between the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), APORDE, the South African Department of Trade and Industry, and Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS). It is aimed at senior government officials from across SADC and will be held in Johannesburg (South Africa) from 2 to 6 September 2019. 

There is no charge to attend the training, however due to limited places applicants will be accepted through an application process. South African participants will be required to cover their own transport and accommodation costs. Participants from other SADC countries will have their costs of travel and accommodation covered by the programme.

The five-day intensive training course is focused on Industrial Policy and consists of lectures and seminars by leading international and African economists. It is of particular relevance given the recent adoption of the SADC Industrialisation Strategy and Action Plan.  The programme consists of both daytime lectures and evening lectures.  Participants are expected to attend all lectures.  

Overview

IPPM will cover topics in development economics and industrial development with a focus on technological change and Industry 4.0. NOTE: Several lectures will be held jointly with the APORDE programme. The training will include sessions on:

• Critical Perspectives on Development Economics
• Market, State and Institutions in Economic Development
• Innovation Systems and Industrial Development
• The 4th Industrial Revolution: Concepts and Policies
• Strategic Approaches to Industry 4.0
• Learning, Governance and Technology Acquisition
• Agro-industry value chains and Industry 4.0
• Regional Value Chains and Industrial Development
• Political Economy of Structural Transformation, Industrial Policy and the 4th Industrial Revolution

A list of confirmed lecturers includes:

• Chris Cramer (SOAS, University of London)
• Ha-Joon Chang (Cambridge University)
• Mushtaq Khan (SOAS)
• Sanghoon Kim (UNIDO)
• Fernando Santiago (UNIDO)
• Erika Kraemer-Mbula (University of Johannesburg)
• Stephanie Blankenburg (UNCTAD)
• Frank Hartwich (UNIDO)
• Gabriel Palma (SOAS)
• Neva Makgetla (TIPS)
• Nimrod Zalk (DTI)

Applications

Applicants should be senior government officials in African countries working in economic ministries / departments and be proficient in English.

The following documents should be sent to Rozale@tips.org.za:

• The completed application form
• A recent curriculum vitae of not more than five pages
• A letter from your employer confirming your availability to attend for the full duration of the training
• A motivation to attend (Max. 500 words)

The application form is attached to dowload 

The application call will close on Thursday 25 July 2019 at 13:00, Johannesburg time.  

Candidates will be notified by e-mail of the outcome of their applications by early August 2019.

Should you have any queries, please contact: Rozale@tips.org.za